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Under Todor Zhivkov, Bulgaria's leader from 1954 to 1989, the country became one of the most prosperous in Eastern Europe, with farmers allowed to till small private plots and industrial growth eventually contributing to over half the gross national product. The collapse of communism in 1989 left industry exposed, and the transition to democracy has been a troubled one. The renamed communist party (now the Bulgarian Socialist Party) managed to control the direction of newly democratic Bulgaria, restricting the influence of the president to troubled noises.

In contrast to most of the other East European countries, where the communist parties effectively vanished from the political scene, the BCP, renamed the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), managed not only to remain at the centre of events but also to win the first free post-war elections (held in June 1990). This turn of events was not totally surprising as Bulgaria lacked a strong dissident movement, not to mention a well-organised opposition, such as the Solidarity movement in Poland. The former Communists won a comfortable majority of 211 from a total of 400 seats.

Mladenov, who had become president in April, resigned in July over a scandal regarding the use of force in the suppression of student demonstrations. The parliament replaced him with Zhelyu Zhelev of the Union of Democratic Forces (UDF). Political stalemate and growing economic chaos, strikes and rallies forced the BSP government of Andrei Lukanov to resign in November 1990, after only a few months in office. A former Supreme Court judge, Dimitar Popov, was appointed to lead a caretaker government of experts in which many BSP, Union of Democratic Forces (UDF) and Agrarian figures took part-as individuals rather than party representatives-with the BSP having a majority of ministers but the UDF holding key economic portfolios. Having carried out its mandate to enact certain basic economic reforms and stabilisation measures and pass a post-communist constitution, the Popov government resigned, paving the way for new parliamentary elections in October 1991.

In this election, the former Communists were voted out of office for the first time since 1944. The UDF won 110 seats to the BSP's 106 but fell short of a majority in the 240 seat National Assembly. The Agrarians and various centrist parties did not gain the 4% of the popular vote needed to qualify for parliament, and the balance of 24 seats was held by the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), which agreed to support a UDF government headed by Filip Dimitrov. Effective for a few months, when it passed laws on foreign investment and privatization, this government was increasingly paralysed by power struggles within the UDF. Eventually, after eleven months, the government was voted out of office in October 1992 after a no-confidence motion in parliament led by the MRF. In the ensuing political turmoil, a government of "independent experts" was formed in December, led by President Zhelev's economic adviser, Lyuben Berov who was nominated by the MRF and supported by the Socialist Party and a breakaway faction of the UDF. The members of this government were mostly non-partisan, although two UDF renegades and one MRF member occupied key posts, and no BSP members were included. However, this government was basically a BSP creation and stayed in power only so long as the Socialist Party supported them.

Finally the Government resigned in September 1994. Although relentless critics especially from the conservative political parties the Government had managed to push through an austerity budget, legislation for a mass privatisation scheme, a bankruptcy law and the Brady debt deal in that year. However, privatisation of land and enterprises was close to paralysed at this time. Following vain attempts to put together a centrist government on the basis of the existing parliament, a caretaker cabinet under Reneta Indzhova was installed pending new elections in December 1994.

The elections resulted in an absolute majority in parliament for the Democratic Left, an electoral coalition between the BSP and the two minor parties. The remaining seats were split between four groups. A Democratic Left government, headed by the BSP leader, Zhan Videnov, was formed. This promised economic reform and growth but moved very slowly on the former (the privatisation effort was virtually at a standstill during 1995 and 1996), while early successes on the latter soon gave way to banking and foreign exchange crises in 1996, leading to hyperinflation and a huge drop in value of the lev by the end of the year. Beset by this, the inability to obtain much needed multilateral backing as a result of ideological hostility towards "the West" and the BSP's defeat in the November 1996 presidential election, Mr Videnov and his government resigned on December 21.

Since being in power, the government has been able to push through its legislative programme without opposition from inside the UDF or from the BSP. The new government's first act was to present a seven-point declaration on the principles for leading the country out of the economic crisis and submitted a four-year programme entitled 'Bulgaria 2001' setting out 135 tasks to be achieved before the end of the first semester in 1998. These include a series of far reaching reforms including an ambitious privatisation programme, radical changes to the banking act including the implementation of a currency board, a tougher stance on crime and an overhaul of the administrative system.

The government's commitment to this rapid market modernisation through foreign investment is backed and aided by the IMF and World Bank. This process is further supported by Bulgaria's associate membership of the European Union (EU). The incentives for continuing reform are strong as success in stabilising the economy and presiding over a gradual recovery would leave the UDF well placed to win a second term in the elections of 2001. Adherence to the reform programme would also put Bulgaria in a good position for inclusion in a second round of accession negotiations for the European Union, which Bulgaria has a genuine prospect of joining.

Return to the Monarchy ?

In June 2001, the Bulgarian monarchy made an unprecedented comeback when former king Simeon II was elected prime minister. Rapid inflation, high unemployment, the lack of a social safety net and the visible wealth of sanctioned criminals have caused widespread disillusionment. Progress, plodding beast that it is, continues under President Petar Stoyanov, and the government is eager to qualify for membership in NATO and the EU.

For further information, please contact Mr. Neytcho Iltchev, to whom you can send your remarks and recommendations. Telephone: +359 2 9842 7579 ; Fax: +359 2 981 1719 , E-mail: neylegrand@ifrance.com; nbulgaria@yahoo.com.

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